Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $232,863$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{283,293.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 89.6)}}\) (asimptote \(283,293.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,106$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,932.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 59.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,932.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,659$ on 2020-07-02

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $47,859$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,783.9}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 94.4)}}\) (asimptote \(47,783.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $359$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(29.1 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{365.4}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 54.7)}}\) (asimptote \(365.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,110$ on 2020-07-02

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $202,284$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(4.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,695.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(181,695.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,167$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,840.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 35.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,840.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,152$ on 2020-07-02

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $27,837$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(443 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,306.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 116.3)}}\) (asimptote \(42,306.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $94$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(0.565 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,160$ on 2020-07-02

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $53,708$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(50.3 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{156,776.3}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 126.6)}}\) (asimptote \(156,776.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,160$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(0.666 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,636$ on 2020-07-02

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $197,608$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(5.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280,697.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(280,697.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,752$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(44 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,285.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 111.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,285.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,187$ on 2020-07-02

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $97,897$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,751.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 89.9)}}\) (asimptote \(105,751.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $118$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.12 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179.5}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 84.9)}}\) (asimptote \(179.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,182$ on 2020-07-02

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $27,047$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(4.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,169.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(19,169.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $324$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(101 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{298.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 30.0)}}\) (asimptote \(298.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,176$ on 2020-07-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Malaysia recovered 97%
Korea, South recovered 88%
Singapore recovered 77%
Sri Lanka recovered 76%
Turkey recovered 75%
Georgia recovered 71%
Qatar recovered 69%
United Arab Emirates recovered 39%
Tajikistan recovered 31%
Afghanistan recovered 25%
Iran recovered 21%

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,643$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,311.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,311.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(59.9 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 18.0)}}\) (asimptote \(117.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-07-02

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,967$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(116.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,355.8}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 17.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11,355.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $282$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(104 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(75.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{273.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(273.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $926$ on 2020-07-02

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,310$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,107.2}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 103.0)}}\) (asimptote \(43,107.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(7.82 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(26.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,855$ on 2020-07-02

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,066$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(236 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,247.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 64.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,247.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.06 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 11.8)}}\) (asimptote \(12.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $228$ on 2020-07-02