Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $232,863$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{283,293.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 89.6)}}\) (asimptote \(283,293.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,106$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,932.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 59.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,932.1\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,659$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $47,859$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,783.9}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 94.4)}}\) (asimptote \(47,783.9\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $359$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(29.1 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{365.4}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 54.7)}}\) (asimptote \(365.4\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,110$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $202,284$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(4.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,695.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(181,695.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,167$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,840.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 35.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,840.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,152$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $27,837$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(443 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,306.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 116.3)}}\) (asimptote \(42,306.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $94$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(0.565 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,160$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $53,708$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(50.3 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{156,776.3}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 126.6)}}\) (asimptote \(156,776.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,160$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(0.666 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,636$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $197,608$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(5.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280,697.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(280,697.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,752$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(44 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,285.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 111.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,285.6\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $58,187$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $97,897$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,751.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 89.9)}}\) (asimptote \(105,751.6\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $118$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.12 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179.5}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 84.9)}}\) (asimptote \(179.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,182$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $27,047$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(4.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,169.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(19,169.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $324$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(101 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{298.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 30.0)}}\) (asimptote \(298.6\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,176$ on 2020-07-02